Mutoscope!

On Saturday, I went to the Musée Mechanique in San Francisco, and I watched a Harold Lloyd short. Called On the Beam, it was a deleted scene from Lloyd's last short, 1921's Never Weaken.

I drop my quarter in the slot, and the light comes on. I peer into the peephole on top of the clamshell-shaped metal Mutoscope, turn the crank, and watch Lloyd dance to life on an I-beam high above the Manhattan streets.

The Mutoscope format is a hand-cranked flipbook. I think a couple of cards may have been missing. Halfway through, I began to grow concerned--these cards are pretty old. Several have bent or torn corners. A few have horizontal creases across the middle. Some of these even have cracks that I can see through as they are bent in half as I turn the crank.

It slowly dawns on me that I could be the last person to see this, that the act of me enjoying it is actually degrading it. It can only be seen finitely many times. My instincts tell me to stop turning that crank. But I can't just leave it stuck in the middle, one card bent by the flipper. I have to finish.

I'll admit, some of the fun lay in the archaic format. It's so clunky, this four-foot tall metal box containing one "film" no longer than two minutes that you watch by inserting a quarter. I wanted to go home, find it on YouTube, and post a link on Facebook, but I'd laugh about how you wouldn't really experience it the right way. Only tonight when I looked for it online, I couldn't find it.

Who knows? Fifty years from now, you'll rummage around in the attic and your grandkid will blow the dust off a DVD and wonder what it was. "It was one of my favorite movies. It made me laugh and laugh." "Can we watch it?" "I don't know. I don't think so."

Enjoy your movies while you can, people.

Towards a more equal representation?

There's a proposal from Thirty-thousand.org to increase the size of the US House of Representatives. By a lot. As they say, 435 representatives cannot faithfully represent 300 million Americans! I think they have a point in that we could use more members of Congress, but I am not yet convinced that we should go so far as their recommendation that in keeping with the intent of the framers, a Congressional district should never exceed 50 to 60 thousand. I disagree with a few of their arguments, but I do think there is something inherently nonrepresentative about how Montana has nearly twice the population of Wyoming and yet they have the same level of representation. And, of course, I do love thinking about Congressional reapportionment.

They say that the House needs 6300 representatives to ensure that the difference between the smallest and largest district would be no more than 5% larger than another, but they seem content with a 6000-member House. They do not, so far as I could find, give the apportionment based on the 2010 Census with 6000 members. I think it's worth looking at, and so I've put it below. By my count, the largest representation is 52,820 people per representative and the smallest is 50,567 people per representative, or 4.45%, but I don't know that I would call it reasonable.

A couple of thoughts:

I don't think there is any reason in today's society to require that we need one representative for 50,000 people. I mean, does Arizona State University (60,000+ students at its Tempe campus) really need a congressional district entirely for itself? We have one hundred athletic stadiums that seat at least 50,000 in the country.

Los Angeles County, CA, has about 9.9 million people, and so it would need around 190 districts itself. Given the large number of immigrants in LA, I suspect it would not be too difficult to draw one of these districts for which only 5% of the district would actually be legally allowed to vote. Would this representation be fair compared a district in which everyone is a citizen?

One notion the founders liked was that states be given equal representation, regardless of their size. That is of course what the Senate is for, but the House has a bit of this, too. Increasing the size of the House weakens the relative advantage of small states, both in the House and also in the Electoral College. I'm not necessarily saying this is a bad thing but merely observing that it would happen.

There is no way possible way we could pass a system under which Wyoming gets 11 representatives and the District of Columbia has none. If you care about fair representation of people more than fair representation of the founders ideals in the way we run our government, you have to take this into account.

State	No. of reps.
Alabama	93
Alaska	14
Arizona	124
Arkansas	57
California	725
Colorado	98
Connecticut	70
Delaware	17
Florida	366
Georgia	189
Hawaii	26
Idaho	31
Illinois	250
Indiana	126
Iowa	59
Kansas	56
Kentucky	84
Louisiana	88
Maine	26
Maryland	112
Massachusetts	127
Michigan	192
Minnesota	103
Mississippi	58
Missouri	117
Montana	19
Nebraska	36
Nevada	53
New Hampshire	26
New Jersey	171
New Mexico	40
New York	377
North Carolina	186
North Dakota	13
Ohio	225
Oklahoma	73
Oregon	75
Pennsylvania	247
Rhode Island	20
South Carolina	90
South Dakota	16
Tennessee	124
Texas	490
Utah	54
Vermont	12
Virginia	156
Washington	131
West Virginia	36
Wisconsin	111
Wyoming	11

Montgomery Madness Final Four

It's Final Four time in my random tournament. Let's head down I-65 to Montgomery, Alabama, and check out the semifinal action.

In the undercard, representing the North Region, all the way from Anchorage, Alaska, in the white trunks, A5! And in this corner, from the South Region in Soddy-Daisy, Tennessee, in the trunks that are not white, it's D9! Nine seeds are 0-2 against 5 seeds, but 2-0 against 4 seeds, and so I thought a coin toss would be appropriate here. I tossed a 1970 Konrad Adenauer two Deutsch Mark coin, and it came up tail! D9 becomes the lowest seed ever to advance to the championship game!

The night's second game saw an exciting match up of two 1 seeds, B1 representing the West Region from Bellingham, Washington, and C1 from the East Region in Groton, Connecticut. One seeds are 16-16 when playing each other, and so I had to appeal to a coin toss, a James Buchanon one dollar coin. It came down tails, favoring C1, the third overall seed.

The championship game featured D9 versus C1. D9 had previously defeated D1 in the second round. Historically, the 9 seeds are actually 56-48 against the 8 seeds, and so I don't know if it is right to say D9 was lucky in the first round. However, when they play a 1 seed, 9 seeds are only 4-52, and so they really beat the odds in the second round. They followed that by winning three straight games via coin toss, which, believe it or not, is historically more likely than a 9 beating a 1. Surely, two wins over a 1 seed is too much to ask, right? Yes, it is. D9 fought hard, but in the end, C1 just proved too strong for Cinderella.

Congratulations, C1! Now let's all sing "One Shining Moment" and reflect on this past amazing tournament, one sure to go down in history.

Random Walk to Montgomery, Day 5

First, I must express my thanks to the Sweet 16 teams to agree to play both the regional semifinals and finals on the same day to speed things up.

C1 kicking things off in Groton, CT, with a convincing win over C4. C6 got lucky when they caught C3 in Ramstein without three of their best players for violating the team rules against drinking in spite of its legality in Germany; however, back on this side of the Atlantic, they fell back to earth against C2, who cruised to an easy victory. In a thrilling regional final, there were four lead changes in the final minute. The last team with the ball would win, and that proved to be C1, who got a running layup just before the clock expired. Welcome to Montgomery, C1!

The random selection of hosting the South Regional finals was the best thing to ever happen to Soddy-Daisy, TN. Their region is wide open after D9 and D7 knocked off D1 and D2. This trend continued in the first game when D3's center sent what is believed to be the record for most 3-second calls in an NCAA tournament game as D7 pulled another upset. D9 found themselves in a strange situation--the favorite. They wore their home white uniforms because they faced another upsetter in D12. Since a 9 seed and a 12 seen had never played in the regional semifinals, I decided to decide this game with a coin toss. The 1963 Benjamin Franklin half dollar coin floated through the air and came down heads! That means D9 advances to face D7 in the finals. The 7-9 match up was another seed pairing that had never met, and so I again reached for a coin--a 1989 Swiss five fran(c/ken/co) coin. It came up tails this time sending D9 on to the Final Four.

In Bellingham, WA, the West Regional semifinals played to form with B1 and B2 having no troubles with B5 and B6, respectively. Their match up in the finals was a titanic game, long to be remembered by anyone who saw it. B2 hit an 80-foot three pointer at the end of the first half to take a one-point lead. After a back and forth second half they appeared to hit their second shot from the backcourt to give them a one point lead at the buzzer of the game, but the officials reviewed the tape and tragically, the clock expired just before the senior guard could launch the shot. B1 advances to play C1 in Montgomery.

The North Regional in Anchorage thawed the locals. Upstart A10 caught a tough break with the game falling on the Sabboth, which meant their ace 3-point shooter couldn't play. A6's superior inside game carried them into the Elite 8. The day's most shocking result came in the final game when the overall top seed A1, perhaps weary from having to travel to Ramstein and then to Anchoring didn't score in the first five minutes against A5. They picked up the pace in the second have, but A5 held strong and countered every blow to pull the upset. In the 5-6 pairing had only happened once (the 5 won) and so I opted for a coin toss here. My 2000 Canadian toonie came up heads and gave A5 the final berth in the Final Four, setting up an exciting match up with D9.

Random Walk to Montgomery, Day 4

Again the fourth day of the tournament began with its biggest story happening off court. About thirty feet off court in the gym at St. Petersburg College. A pipe burt, making the court unplayable. At the last moment, the Church of Scientology, which is headquartered in host city Clearwater, FL. They offered the gym at their new Super Power Building, the second largest building in Clearwater. Top seed D1, whose leading scorer is a senior psychology major, protested vehemently, but but their pleas fell on deaf ears. With their opponent clearly destracted, D9 took advantage and jumped out to an early lead. D1 rallied in the second half, but the underdog held on for giant upset. According to postgame reports, the parents of a sophomore bench player for D9 are practicing Scientologists and may have contacted the church. The NCAA is investigating.

In the second game game in Clearwater, C4's dominant inside game lead them passed C5 to the Sweet 16 in Groton, CT, with no trouble.

They will play C1, who struggled against C8, but not as much as C8 struggled against them. C1 should be happy that the satellite feed from Newark was lost so that no one saw it. Also advancing from Newark was D12 whose crushing full court press was too much for the dominant inside game of favored D4.

B2 did the favorites proud in Butte and sent B7 home disappointed. In the second game, however, it appeared that the cast on the wrist of the A4 coach from their first round game prevent him from drawing up the winning play. Coming out of a time out trailing by 2 with 6.1 seconds remaining, they were unable to get off a shot, sending A5 to Anchorage to face overall top seed A1.

In the final games of the day in Fresno, B9 fought a hard game, but B1 wore them down at the end to advance to the Bellingham Regional. The last team to secure a place in the Sweet 16 was A6 thanks to a thrilling come-from-behind win over A3. Most pundits had counted A6 out after their 8OT opening game, but they proved them wrong. Welcome to Anchorage, A6!

[A note on the random selection process. There is good data on the first round match ups of seeds, since four times a year for the last 26 years, each pair has played. In each successive round, the number of match ups occur less frequently. There is the probability of, say, a 12 seed making it to the Sweet 16, but if they had to play a 4 seed it would be a more difficult task than playing a 13 seed. It treated each first weekend pod leading up to a team in the Sweet 16 as single event, and chose one random number to select both which team made it to the Sweet 16 and also the team that they beat in the second round.

I scrolled through past Sweet 16s and looked for match up of seeds. For example, a 2 seed has played a 6 seed 25 times in the Sweet 16, in which game the 2 is 20-5, and so I assumed that a number from 1 to 25, and if it was 20 or less, the 2 would advance, and 21-25, the 6 advanced.

Whenever possible, I tried to do this, but it is possible to have combinations that have met only once or not at all. Or, there have been two 4-9 pairings (both won by 4) and two 5-9 pairings (both won by 9), and so I combined them to say that when a 9 plays a 4 or a 5, the odds are 50/50. When the odds are 50/50 or in the Final Four, if two of the same seeds met, I decided the game by a coin toss.]

Random Walk to Montgomery, Day 3

Shocking news from Ramstein Air Base! After their opening victory on Thursday night, two sophomores and a junior for C3, including their second leading scorer and leading rebounder were caught drinking off base in a biergarten with some of their fans who had made the trip and some alumni in the Air Force. The players, ages 19, 20, and 20, broke no laws in Germany, where 16-year-olds may drink beer; however, their coach in consultation with his athletic director decided to suspended the three for today's game. Their replacements gave a valiant effort, but the strong frontcourt of C6 proved to much for them. A1 followed by steamrolling A8, paving their way to Anchorage for the North Regionals.

Also punching their ferry ticket for the Alaska Marine Highway was A10, who pulled a upset in Scottsville, MI. With their leading scorer on the beach in a tie around his neck and a protective boot on his sprained ankle, he could provide no heroic kick start for A2, who struggled as they did when their star went out on Thursday.

The next game saw a seesaw battle between B4 and B5. Tied at halftime, the two teams traded baskets and saw eleven lead changed in the first ten minutes of the second half before a three point followed by steal of the in-bounds pass and dunk gave B5 the momentum they needed to take control.

Across Lake Michigan, through the electric gate in the Chicago River keeping the Asian carp out of the Great Lakes, down the Illinois River and hanging a right on the Hennipen Canal in Moline, D3 started sluggishly but put it together in the second half to end the best season ever for D6. Later, C2 locked up a place in the Sweet 16 in Groton, Connecticut, with an easy victory over C7.

The weather proved more agreeable at the Rockingham Motor Speedway this afternoon, allowing lots of fans to camp out on the infield and see two dramatic upsets. If you watched the first game, you would have never known that D7 was the underdog. They controlled the game virtually from the opening tip against D2 and will play D3 in Soddy-Daisy, TN. In the second game, B6 hit a tying three pointer at the buzzer in regulation, and then B3 countered with a tying three of their own from 30 feet away at the buzzer in the first overtime. B6 took control in the second extra period to earn a trip to Bellingham.

Random Walk to Montgomery, Day 2

While day 1 went mostly according to seed, day 2 started with a mild upset in Clearwater, FL, when D9 easily handled D8. They will play D1, who appeared sluggish against D16, but held on for the victory. In the second session at St. Petersburgh College, C13 did not provide much of a challenge against C4, but their starting center, also a tight end on the football team, caused not one but two fifteen minute delays by shattering the backboard with his dunks. C12 thought they had the obligatory 12-5 upset for most of the game, until C5's senior reserve guard got a hot hand of the bench with four threes in the span of two minutes late in the second half. C5 eagerly awaits their rematch with C4 who knocked them out of the tournament two years ago.

In Newark, DE, on the campus of the University of Delaware, the 12 seed got it done when D12 knocked off D5. Most pundits considered the rating of D12 as a 12 seed to be the most egregious underrating of a team. It never gets respect in spite of its strong track record in the tournament. D4 took revenge for the favorites by handily beating D13. C8 continued its hot play by beating C9, and C1 sent everyone home early by running up a 35 point halftime lead over lowly C16.

At the Butte Civic Center in Montana, A4 beat A13 despite a losing their head coach midway through the second half when he tripped over the foot of a sophomore reserve center and broke his wrist. There was heartbreak in the afternoon's second game when A5 started the game with two technical free throws after an excited freshman power forward for A12 dunked during warm-ups. A5 won by just one point.

B1 kicked off the action at Frenso State's Save Mart Center with an easy victory over B16. They will play B9, who advanced in a nailbiter when B8's senior forward missed two freethrows with 0.9 seconds remaining. He got his own rebound and put up a shot, but it ticked off the side of the rim as the buzzer sounded. Had he hit the shot, not only would his team have advanced, he would have moved into first place in his schools career field goal percentage. In the second session, A3 beat A14 without too much trouble, but in the last game of the first round, A6 and A11 really drew the ire of the Eastern Time Zone when their game went into eight overtime periods! The longest game ever in college basketball ended when A11's point guard fouled out 30 seconds into the final overtime period, reducing his team to only four active players. Buoyed by this, A6 took their second wind and won by a final score of 171-159.